Kosovo's independence to open global Pandora's
box - Serbian commentary
BBC Monitoring Europe (Political) - December 8, 2006, Friday
Text of commentary by Lj. Staletovic: "Domino effect possible with epicentre
in Pristina" by Serbian newspaper Glas javnosti on 6 December
A precedent made in the case of Kosovo could open a Pandora's box, giving new
topicality to all separatist demands and creating new crisis spots in the world.
Therefore, the eyes of the world - and especially the eyes of the about 500 out
of a total of 5,000 different ethnic groups in 200 countries all over the world
that are seeking autonomy or a separate state - are trained on Kosovo-Metohija,
waiting to see how its problem will be solved.
Like a domino effect, the crisis would first spill over into Albanian-populated
areas. The first affected would certainly be the south of Serbia, where ethnic
Albanians in Bujanovac, Presevo, and Medvedja would begin by demanding autonomy
before moving on to demand the right to annexation to Kosovo. Albanians are
already referring to this part of Serbia as "eastern Kosovo." Western Macedonia,
which Albanians call Illyrida, would not be spared, either; it is not impossible
that the "virus of annexation to Kosovo" could infect Albanians in Montenegro as
well. In that case, the next in line would be Greece, which from time to time
has problems with its own Albanian national minority.
This would be an added problem for Greece, in view of long years of the Cyprus
crisis and problems with neighbouring Turkey over the divided island.
If Albanians managed to achieve independence, the [Bosnian] Serb Republic could
also invoke this precedent and point out the fact that 90 per cent of its
population wants to secede [from Bosnia-Hercegovina].
"Kosovoization" could affect also countries that Albanians look upon as their
allies. A precedent made in the case of Serbia's southern province could "come
knocking" also at the door of the United Kingdom, with calls for a United
Ireland or for the secession of Scotland and Wales.
The virus of separatism would not miss France, either, and its region of
Brittany. Galicia, too, is a potential flashpoint, as is Corsica. Then there are
Sardinia, Flanders, Wallonia, and Trentino Alto Adige.
What may happen to France and Italy may very well happen also to Spain, which
already has problems in the Basque Country, Catalonia, and Andalusia. Last
March, the Spanish Government approved a plan whereby Catalonia was given wider
powers in the areas of the judiciary and taxation, which provoked a variety of
reactions - while some thought that the decision was "watered down," others
insisted that Spain was in danger of fragmentation.
Russians had been the first to draw attention to the danger from a Kosovo
precedent, because they would be directly affected. The Kosovo precedent could
be applied to the Dniester region in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in
Georgia, which want to be annexed to Russia, as well as to Chechnya, which wants
to secede.
The problem would, thus, spread to the Asian continent and directly affect
China. One has only to remember Tibet or China's Xinjiang province, whose
populations have separatist aspirations.
Although it seems that separatist movements in the world, and especially in
Europe, are not as prominent as before, the fact remains that many areas,
regions, and provinces and their populations want independence. The question is
how they will go about achieving it.
[Box] Terrorist movements dying out
Regional separatist movements in Europe, although apparently dying out, are in
fact only changing their way of operation, so that the chances of their
resorting to terrorism are diminishing. Even ETA is slowly giving way to
political methods of struggle. Various terrorist groups in the United Kingdom,
Italy, Germany, and Corsica are slowly disappearing.
Desmond Clifford, director of the EU Wales Office in Brussels, has recently said
that, "in today's Europe, independence struggles no longer make sense" and that
people are wondering "what is the meaning of independence in today's world." In
this context, Clifford mentions membership in the European Union and NATO, which
provide strategic defence.
Source: Glas javnosti, Belgrade, in Serbian 6 Dec
06
Copyright 2006 British Broadcasting Corporation
Posted for Fair Use only.